Bitcoin prices face renewed downside pressure as the macro backdrop grows more hostile for risky assets, according to a detailed assessment by Steno Research released in mid-January. The report highlights a clear trend of price repricing driven by broad macroeconomic factors, with inflation once again taking center stage as the primary driver. Since mid-December, spot Bitcoin has fallen by roughly 10 percent, slipping from the high-water mark of around 106,000 to about 96,000 as of mid-January. This slide is not seen as an isolated move but rather as part of a broader recalibration across crypto markets, reflecting investors’ reassessment of risk premia in a world of sticky inflation, uncertain monetary policy paths, and evolving macro liquidity conditions. The research notes that the path of least resistance for Bitcoin could extend further toward the low- to mid-80,000s over a near-term horizon if the current macro script persists and if the markets continue to unwind leveraged positions that have accumulated in the derivatives arena.
In Steno’s view, the ongoing sell-off is largely a function of macroeconomic repricing, rather than a sudden, idiosyncratic shock to cryptos. The researchers emphasize that inflation dynamics have once again moved to the center of attention, shaping both expectations for future policy and the demand for speculative assets that borrow liquidity from a rising or uncertain rate environment. The report points to a persistent tension between the strength of macroeconomic indicators and the central bank’s response, which in turn sustains a risk-off mood for a broad swath of higher-beta assets, including Bitcoin. The implication is that price declines are not merely technical corrections but are anchored in a reevaluation of future cash flows and risk premia in a climate where inflation remains a real, floating risk that can fluctuate with evolving data.
Beyond price action, the report also highlights a persistent signal from the derivatives market: open interest remains elevated, suggesting that leverage remains substantial and has to be unwound as part of the ongoing repricing. The dynamics of the futures market imply that traders have built sizable exposure to Bitcoin through leveraged products, and that the unwinding process could continue to exert downward pressure on prices as positions are liquidated or rolled over into less aggressive risk stances. Steno cautions that if inflation does not ease in a timely fashion, sustained upward pressure on prices could become more challenging, potentially pushing prices lower before the market sees any meaningful relief. This framework underscores the fragility of crypto prices in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for extended periods of weakness when inflation prints surprises to the upside or when rate expectations shift again.
Interpreting the current weakness through a macro lens, Steno argues that a stronger U.S. dollar and a hawkish tilt in policy expectations are central to the near-term price action. The January 10 market reaction to the U.S. jobs data underscores this dynamic: strong payrolls combined with a firmer dollar pushed Bitcoin below the 93,000 level as investors priced in a lower likelihood of imminent rate cuts. In their commentary, Steno notes that futures markets now assign a probability of a rate cut in January that is well below the 50 percent threshold, lying closer to a modest, sub-3 percent expectation. The interpretation is clear: a stronger dollar, driven by expectations of higher-for-longer rates and the risk of tariffs, tends to depress riskier assets, including Bitcoin, even as the macro environment remains broadly Liquidity-agnostic and highly sensitive to monetary policy signals.
Within this framework, several concrete impulses emerge for traders and investors. First, the relative outperformance of traditional safe-haven or yield-sensitive assets is a barometer for crypto risk appetite. When the dollar strengthens and cash yields look relatively attractive, capital tends to flow away from volatile assets, a dynamic that can amplify declines in Bitcoin’s spot price. Second, the expectation of weaker near-term inflation, if it materializes, could soften the downward pressure by improving risk sentiment, but only if the data surprises to the upside in inflation in the wrong direction or if the Fed maintains a higher-for-longer stance. Third, the degree to which leverage unwinds in the derivatives market will likely determine the pace of any rebound or deeper setback. If price declines accelerate, forced liquidations and margin calls could exacerbate the move, while a stabilization in macro conditions could relieve some of the pressure and permit a gradual re-pricing of risk.
Looking ahead, Steno notes that the upcoming U.S. CPI report, scheduled for January 15, is expected to show higher-than-consensus inflation readings, with headlines anticipated to rise by around 0.4 percent month-over-month against a consensus of about 0.3 percent. The expectation of a hotter print implies that inflation pressures persist and that the real rate environment could remain restrictive for longer, potentially compounding the headwinds for Bitcoin in the near term. The 10-year Treasury yield is also rising on inflation fears, reinforcing the argument that the broader macro environment remains a constraining factor for crypto assets, even as some participants point to the long-run resilience of the sector. If the forecasted upside surprise in inflation proves accurate, markets might respond with greater caution, adjusting volatility and risk premia in a way that reinforces downside momentum for digital assets in the short run.
In this broader narrative, Steno suggests that Bitcoin could be pushed to as low as 85,000 per coin if the inflation trajectory continues to surprise to the upside and if the consequent policy path keeps monetary conditions tight or restricts liquidity more than currently anticipated. This scenario aligns with a risk-off regime where investors demand higher returns for risk-bearing assets or simply withdraw liquidity from speculative corners of the market. Yet, despite the near-term caution, the researchers maintain a longer-term optimism rooted in fundamental shifts that could illuminate a much brighter path for Bitcoin in 2025 and beyond.
Steno’s central forecast for 2025 presents a striking contrast to near-term caution. The firm projects one of the market’s strongest years on record, arguing that Bitcoin could not only recover but reach new all-time highs, driven by a confluence of favorable factors that coalesce into a powerful tailwind for the cryptocurrency. The analysts forecast that Bitcoin could break above prior all-time highs and push toward new territory in 2025, a view that reflects confidence in a combination of powerful catalysts. They emphasize that a favorable regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies stands as a crucial pillar, one that could unlock institutional participation and liquidity, reduce regulatory risk perception, and attract more mainstream capital to the sector. Moreover, a supportive macroeconomic climate characterized by declining interest rates and improved liquidity could help sustain a robust risk-taking environment for crypto assets, reinforcing the potential for a substantial price rally.
In their bullish scenario for 2025, Steno cites post-halving dynamics as another key factor that historically has delivered meaningful upside potential for Bitcoin. The post-halving period is renowned for structural changes in supply dynamics and heightened market attention, which can translate into stronger price performance if demand remains robust and the risk environment remains favorable. The report also highlights the possibility of “remarkable positive developments” across the adoption, infrastructure, and ecosystem dimensions of the cryptocurrency space, which could buttress investor confidence and sustain a multi-quarter rally. The researchers acknowledge that such a path is contingent on a number of favorable conditions aligning at once, including policy clarity, resilience in risk appetites, and continued improvements in on-chain analytics and market infrastructure. However, when these conditions converge, the prognosis for Bitcoin’s upside potential appears substantial, with a target around 150,000 per coin cited by the researchers as a plausible milestone under the right macro and regulatory environment.
From a broader strategic perspective, the Steno projection rests on three interconnected pillars: a regulatory environment that reduces ambiguity and opens the door to more active mainstream participation, a macro backdrop marked by a healthier liquidity regime and easing inflation pressures that support lower interest rates, and a market structure that continues to evolve in a way that rewards long-term holders and disciplined risk management. Taken together, these elements could unlock substantial upside in Bitcoin’s price trajectory, even as the near-term horizon remains clouded by macro uncertainty and the risk of renewed downside momentum given elevated open interest and leveraged positions in the derivatives space. The near-term tension between risk-off sentiment and the longer-term upside potential creates a dynamic market environment where timing and risk management are paramount for participants seeking to navigate both the downside risks and the upside opportunities.
This comprehensive view suggests that investors should prepare for continued volatility in Bitcoin prices through the balance of 2025, with a bifurcated path: more immediate downside risk if macro data continues to surprise on the upside, followed by a potential multi-quarter rally as policy normalization and regulatory clarity start to take hold. Market participants should consider hedging strategies and defensive positioning to mitigate downside exposure while maintaining exposure to potential upside catalysts. At the same time, the research emphasizes the role of informed, disciplined risk management and continuous evaluation of macro data, policy signals, and liquidity conditions to guide investment decisions in a market characterized by rapid shifts in sentiment and structural changes in the crypto ecosystem.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remains closely tied to the evolution of macroeconomic conditions, inflation dynamics, and policy expectations. The latest Steno Research assessment underscores a landscape where rising U.S. prices and a firmer dollar contribute to a sensitive, risk-off stance in crypto markets, elevating the potential for further downside toward the mid-80,000s if inflation data continues to surprise and rate expectations stay restrictive. The resilience of the Bitcoin rally hinges on a combination of favorable regulatory developments, improved macro liquidity, and structural market improvements that could emerge over the next several quarters. While the short-term path may be challenging, the longer-term case presented by Steno rests on a confluence of supportive factors that could propel Bitcoin to new highs, with a 2025 scenario projecting a substantial price rally to the 150,000 area as a plausible milestone if the stars align for regulatory clarity, macro easing, and robust post-halving demand. Investors should monitor inflation prints, monetary policy signals, and the evolving dynamics of the derivatives market, as these elements are likely to shape Bitcoin’s price path through both the near term and the longer horizon.