Bitcoin holders should brace for further selling pressure as a firmer, more expensive U.S. price environment creates a challenging backdrop for risk assets, according to a January 13 report from Steno Research. Since mid-December, Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen roughly 10%, sliding from peaks around $106,000 to about $96,000 as of January 14. Steno warned that this decline could extend, with potential moves down to roughly $85,000 per coin if current dynamics persist. The current sell-off appears to be driven by a broader repricing in crypto markets amid an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, with inflation once again taking center stage in market attention. At the same time, Bitcoin’s derivatives markets remain overheated, signaling that excess leverage still needs to be unwound during this repricing phase. In Steno’s view, sustained inflation in the United States could further pressure the crypto market, exacerbating conditions before prices eventually regain upward momentum. Open interest in Bitcoin futures remains elevated, underscoring a persistent commitment among traders and investors to maintain exposure even as prices retreat.
Macroeconomic unease and price action
On January 10, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report helped push Bitcoin’s spot price below $93,000 as the U.S. dollar strengthened on expectations that rate cuts would come more slowly than previously anticipated. The futures market currently prices in a less-than-3% probability of an interest rate cut in January, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool. In commentary to market media outlets, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, attributed Bitcoin’s weakness to the resilience of the U.S. dollar, which was rising in response to more hawkish Federal Reserve policy and concerns about tariff-related risks. He suggested that lower interest rates generally support risk assets such as Bitcoin, underscoring the sensitivity of crypto to monetary policy dynamics. These observations highlight a critical channel through which macro conditions influence crypto pricing: an inverse relationship between rate path expectations and speculative risk appetite.
Looking ahead, Steno Research anticipates a CPI report for January 15 that could show higher-than-expected inflation. The research team forecasted monthly headline inflation running around 0.4% versus consensus expectations of 0.3%, a path that would reinforce expectations for tighter financial conditions or slower relief from monetary stimulus. Rising 10-year Treasury yields have also reflected market anxiety about inflation, with policy sensitivity and real interest rates contributing to the pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Steno warned that if its inflation forecast proves accurate, an upside surprise could catch markets off guard and place renewed downward pressure on digital asset prices. In that scenario, Bitcoin could conceivably decline toward the $85,000 level, as traders recalibrate risk premia and adjust their hedging and positioning to the new macro regime.
The longer-run crypto outlook from Steno remains mixed: the research group has signaled that 2025 could be the cryptocurrency market’s best year yet, despite a near-term downturn. The base-case forecast envisions Bitcoin achieving new all-time highs and, in some projections, approaching substantially higher levels across the year. The analysis points to a combination of a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a macroeconomic climate characterized by easing inflation and improving liquidity, and the historically strong performance patterns seen after Bitcoin’s halving as drivers of a prospective multi-year rally. In their projections, Steno specifically cited the potential for Bitcoin to reach around $150,000 per coin in 2025, supported by a confluence of factors including a more welcoming regulatory stance, a macro backdrop marked by declining interest rates, and a historically positive phase following the Bitcoin halving. The forecast underscores a strategic tension in the market: while near-term momentum remains fragile, the longer horizon remains conducive to a robust rebound if policy and liquidity conditions align with crypto-specific catalysts.
Sectional insights into market structure
The present market environment is characterized by two synergistic forces: a macro market backdrop that is selective about risk-on assets and a derivatives market that has previously rewarded high leverage. Steno’s commentary emphasizes that the continued overheated state of Bitcoin’s derivatives markets implies that there is still significant excess leverage that must be unwound during this repricing period. As investors rethink risk, complex hedges, futures spreads, and perpetual contract positions can amplify moves in both directions. The presence of elevated open interest suggests that traders maintain substantial exposure to Bitcoin through futures and other derivatives, even as spot prices retreat. This juxtaposition of robust speculative interest and a price decline points to a market that remains vulnerable to sudden shifts in sentiment, macro surprises, or policy pivots. The relative resilience of open interest, despite price weakness, could signal that participants view the current price action as a temporary pullback within a broader re-pricing process rather than a definitive trend reversal.
Subsection: The role of inflation expectations and investor behavior
Inflation expectations play a pivotal role in shaping crypto market dynamics because they directly influence the perceived risk premium for holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. When investors anticipate higher inflation or slower progress in cooling price pressures, the opportunity cost of holding non-yield assets rises. In such environments, market participants may demand a higher premium to hold risk assets, even if those assets exhibit potential for outsized upside over longer horizons. Conversely, if inflation cools more quickly than expected and the Fed signals a clearer path toward looser policy, the appetite for risk assets could stabilize or improve. The January 10 jump in the U.S. dollar on the back of stronger jobs data illustrates how quickly shifts in macro expectations can translate into rapid de-risking in the crypto space, particularly when rate-cut timelines appear to lengthen.
Immediate triggers and rate outlook
The January data flow remains a critical driver for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Positive U.S. employment figures have historically been associated with stronger economic growth arguments, but they can also complicate the central bank’s task of steering inflation toward target levels. In January’s case, the stronger jobs numbers reinforced the idea that the Fed might keep policy tighter for longer, which can weigh on risk assets including Bitcoin. The market’s reaction—holding prices below the $93,000 threshold and lifting the U.S. dollar—reflects a balancing act between growth resilience and inflation control measures.
From a rate-path perspective, the market is pricing a low probability of imminent rate relief in January, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating less than a 3% chance of a cut. This environment reduces the incentive for investors to search for yield in riskier assets and nudges them toward safer, rate-sensitive alternatives or cash. For Bitcoin and other crypto assets, the consequence is a slower erosion of risk premia and a more challenging climb in prices as investors reassess the risk-reward balance. The Grayscale viewpoint on the dollar’s strength, driven by hawkish Fed policy and concerns about tariffs, is consistent with the broader expectation that the U.S. dollar could remain a headwind for non-yielding assets in the near term. Such dynamics tend to compress speculative interest in Bitcoin, at least until macro conditions soften and the Fed signals a more accommodative stance.
Near-term inflation data, as anticipated by Steno, could provide a notable catalyst. The January CPI release carries the potential to set the tone for the market’s interpretation of inflation persistence and the likely trajectory of monetary policy. If the CPI prints hotter than expected, the immediate consequence could be heightened selling pressure across crypto markets as investors reprice risk premia in light of a more persistent inflation narrative. Conversely, if inflation surprises modestly to the upside but remains on a sustainable deceleration path, Bitcoin could test the lower end of its recent range and set up a more constructive environment for a rebound as rate-cut expectations begin to re-enter the discourse later in the year.
The potential price path in a hotter-than-forecast inflation scenario could move Bitcoin down to approximately $85,000 per coin, according to Steno’s sensitivity analysis under the assumption of continued macro headwinds and cautious investor sentiment. This scenario underscores the fragility of the near-term price structure and the outsized impact macro surprises can have on a relatively immature asset class. It also highlights the importance of liquidity conditions, as a tightening liquidity backdrop tends to amplify drawdowns in high-beta assets, including Bitcoin, during periods of renewed risk aversion.
The broader 2025 bull case
Amid the near-term softness, Steno remains constructive about the medium-to-long-term outlook for the crypto sector, with a notable emphasis on 2025. The research team asserts that 2025 could be the cryptocurrency market’s "best year ever," driven by a convergence of favorable drivers. The central thesis rests on three interlocking factors: (1) a regulatory environment that becomes progressively more supportive of crypto markets, (2) a macroeconomic climate characterized by lower interest rates and improved liquidity, and (3) the historically strong post-halving performance of Bitcoin, which has typically preceded heightened price momentum in the subsequent years. The projection of Bitcoin reaching as high as $150,000 per coin in 2025 is rooted in those expected tailwinds, along with sustained investor interest, on-chain activity, and emergence of new use cases that broaden crypto adoption.
From a strategic standpoint, the anticipated regulatory clarity and policy stability could reduce the uncertainty premium that currently weighs on crypto valuations. A constructive regulatory framework typically lowers compliance risk, encourages institutional participation, and improves liquidity, all of which can support higher price levels over a multi-quarter horizon. When paired with a macro context of declining interest rates and improved market liquidity, Bitcoin’s price dynamics could benefit from a more favorable capital-allocation environment. The combination of these macro and micro factors could align with resilient post-halving performance patterns, which historically have preceded sustained price strength for Bitcoin in the months and years that follow. The forecast underscores a forward-looking view that, despite short-term volatility, the structural tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market remain intact for the medium term.
Key mechanisms behind the 2025 optimism include: a more predictable regulatory regime that reduces jurisdictional uncertainty for exchanges and custody providers; broader participation from traditional financial institutions, which could improve market depth and resilience; and ongoing improvements in on-chain infrastructure that enhance security, efficiency, and interoperability. The expectation of a more favorable macro climate—where inflation stabilizes and rate policy becomes more accommodative—would also tend to lift risk assets, including BTC, by reducing discount rates and improving prospects for future cash flows in a cashless, digital economy. Taken together, these factors create a plausible catalytic environment for Bitcoin to test new high-water marks as the market transitions from a period of adjustment to one of normalization and growth.
Structure, strategy, and risk management in a volatile regime
In a market characterized by elevated open interest and overheated derivatives activity, risk management becomes central to navigating the near-term landscape. Traders and institutions often adjust their hedging approaches in response to evolving volatility regimes, shifting correlation structures, and changes in funding costs. A scenario where inflation remains elevated or where rate expectations shift toward tighter policy than anticipated can intensify the unwinding of leveraged positions and trigger rapid price swings. Market participants may rely more on liquidity provision strategies, diversified risk budgets, and disciplined rebalancing to manage exposure to Bitcoin and other major crypto assets.
For individual investors, the current regime underscores the importance of robust risk controls, clear investment theses, and transparent assumptions about time horizons. In practice, this means delineating stop-loss levels, position sizing relative to total capital, and explicit parameters for re-entry if and when a risk-on rally materializes. It also means staying informed about macro developments, including CPI prints, wage growth data, and the trajectory of the dollar and interest rates, which continue to be powerful drivers of crypto price dynamics. The balance between speculative activity and hedging demands can remain delicate as market participants weigh the potential upside of a spike in crypto prices against the downside risk posed by macro surprises.
Conclusion
In summary, the January 13 assessment from Steno Research presents a nuanced view of Bitcoin’s near-term price path and a more optimistic long-run outlook for the cryptocurrency market. The near-term narrative emphasizes a continuing repricing in the face of an unfavorable macroeconomic backdrop, with rising U.S. inflation concerns and a stronger dollar contributing to downside pressure on Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin’s derivatives markets are still characterized by elevated leverage suggests that the coming weeks could witness further adjustments as traders unwind risk exposure and recalibrate hedges. The evidence from the price action, concurrent with macro indicators such as CPI expectations and rate-cut probabilities, supports a scenario in which Bitcoin could test lower levels, potentially around $85,000, if inflation prints hotter than anticipated and rate cuts are delayed further.
Yet the longer horizon remains compelling for bulls who see a constructive regulatory environment, improved liquidity, and a favorable macro climate as key catalysts for a stronger crypto market. Steno’s forecast of a potential ascent to around $150,000 for Bitcoin in 2025 rests on these structural drivers, complemented by a history of strong post-halving performance and a broader adoption of crypto technology. The tension between near-term vulnerabilities and longer-term upside potential presents a classic risk-reward setup for market participants: navigate the volatile, data-driven landscape in the present while positioning for a potential, meaningful rebound as policy, liquidity, and market structure align in favor of crypto assets. Investors, traders, and analysts alike should remain attentive to inflation dynamics, monetary policy signals, and the evolving regulatory landscape, recognizing that the path for Bitcoin remains highly contingent on macro shocks, liquidity conditions, and the pace at which risk appetite returns to the market.
In light of these dynamics, a balanced, well-informed approach—one that integrates macroeconomics with crypto-specific catalysts—will be essential for navigating the coming months. The near-term outlook suggests caution and disciplined risk management, while the longer-term view offers a pathway to substantial upside should favorable policy and macro conditions cohere. As always in the cryptocurrency space, developments can unfold rapidly, and the balance between opportunity and risk will continue to evolve with new data, policy signals, and shifts in global financial sentiment. The central takeaway is clear: Bitcoin’s price action remains tightly tethered to the broader macroeconomic and policy environment, and investors should prepare for both potential downside scenarios and the possibility of a significant upside if the stars align for a more supportive regime.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s current trajectory sits at a crossroads shaped by macroeconomic forces, market structure, and evolving policy signals. The immediate term looks fragile, with price risks skewed toward lower levels given inflation pressure and the prospect of delayed rate relief. Yet the longer-term narrative remains persuasive for crypto enthusiasts who anticipate a more favorable regulatory framework, improved liquidity, and the historical resilience of Bitcoin in post-halving cycles. As such, market participants should pursue a disciplined approach that accounts for near-term volatility while positioning for the upside potential that a more accommodative macro environment could unlock in 2025 and beyond.