Bitcoin holders should prepare for more selloffs as the United States’ elevated price levels create a mounting macroeconomic headwind for risky assets, according to a January 13 report from Steno Research. Since the middle of December, Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen roughly 10 percent, sliding from a record near $106,000 to about $96,000 as of January 14. Steno cautions that the decline could extend further, potentially pulling BTC to as low as $85,000 per coin. The selling pressure appears to reflect an ongoing repricing driven by a less favorable macroeconomic environment, with inflation once again taking center stage in the market narrative. At the same time, Bitcoin’s derivatives markets show signs of overheating, signaling that there is still excess leverage that needs to be unwound during this repricing phase. If inflation remains persistently high, Steno argues that crypto markets could experience renewed downside pressure before prices recover and turn green again.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures remains elevated, underscoring the persistent tension between the spot market and the broader macro backdrop. The current setup implies that traders are positioned for continued volatility as investors assess the trajectory of inflation and the path of interest rates. The combination of high open interest and a fragile macro equilibrium increases the potential for sharp drawdowns if inflation proves hotter than expected or if risk assets suffer a renewed wave of risk aversion. In this context, Steno maintains that the crypto market is vulnerable to further declines unless inflation cools more quickly or a new driver emerges to restore risk appetite. The ongoing macroeconomic unease paints a picture of a market caught between stubborn price pressures and the desire for liquidity, with Bitcoin acting as a high-beta proxy for the global risk cycle.
Macroeconomic unease
On January 10, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report coincided with a fall in Bitcoin’s spot price below $93,000, as demand for dollars strengthened on expectations of slower interest rate cuts. Market participation in futures now prices a less than 3 percent chance of a rate cut in January, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool. Zachary Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin appears to be held back by the U.S. dollar’s strength, driven by a more hawkish Fed stance and the potential for tariffs to influence economic policy. In this environment, lower interest rates generally bolster risk assets, including BTC, by reducing discount rates and improving liquidity conditions across markets. The tension between a stronger dollar and the upside potential for crypto creates a tricky environment for investors who must weigh the impact of monetary policy on valuations.
Steno anticipates that the upcoming U.S. CPI report for January 15 will show higher-than-expected inflation, with monthly headline price gains around 0.4 percent versus a consensus estimate of 0.3 percent. The expectation of hotter inflation aligns with a broader narrative that price pressures remain embedded in the economy, contributing to a more cautious stance from policymakers and a delay in rate reductions. The document notes that 10-year Treasury yields are rising on fear of persistent inflation, reflecting a risk-off tilt in fixed income markets and a potential headwind for high-growth assets, including Bitcoin. If the forecast proves accurate, Steno believes the upside surprise could catch markets off guard and exert additional downward pressure on digital asset prices. In such a scenario, Steno projects Bitcoin could slip to as low as $85,000 per coin, reinforcing the argument that macro surprises may be the dominant driver of near-term crypto movements.
Despite the near-term caution, Steno remains optimistic about the longer horizon, projecting that 2025 could be the cryptocurrency market’s best year on record. The report highlights a path where Bitcoin would briefly surpass prior highs and embark on a sustained uptrend, supported by several favorable structural factors. Among the drivers cited are an unusually favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a macroeconomic climate characterized by easing financial conditions and improved liquidity, and the historically strong post-halving performance of Bitcoin. The analysts contend that these elements could catalyze a powerful upside, with Bitcoin potentially reaching new all-time highs as the market digests the policy backdrop and starts to price in a more constructive growth trajectory. The narrative suggests a regime shift where the balance of risk and reward becomes more favorable for risk assets, including BTC, as structural and cyclical forces align.
In their 2025 outlook, Steno emphasizes a sequence of supportive dynamics that could underpin a multi-year rally. The first pillar is regulatory clarity, which is portrayed as increasingly constructive for digital assets. The second pillar is a macro environment with declining interest rates and abundant liquidity, conditions that historically bolster asset prices across risk-on sectors, including cryptocurrencies. A third pillar is the post-halving performance, which has historically demonstrated resilience and upside momentum as the mining reward structure evolves and the network dynamics improve. Collectively, these factors contribute to a narrative in which Bitcoin may reassert itself as a high-beta asset within a broader risk-on backdrop, capable of driving substantial upside in the coming years. Steno contends that the convergence of these drivers could yield a trajectory where BTC surpasses prior peaks and demonstrates a robust, sustained performance pattern.
Sectional breakdown and market signals
Market dynamics and price trajectory
The price action witnessed since mid-December is characterized by a clear drawdown from all-time highs to more modest levels, reflecting a repricing that mirrors macroeconomic anxieties. Investors should consider the possibility of further downside if inflation remains sticky and if rate expectations remain constrained by policy signals. The implications for traders involve reassessing risk exposure, tightening stop losses, and adjusting hedges to mitigate the potential for abrupt capitulation moves. The interaction between macro headwinds and crypto-specific dynamics remains the dominant theme shaping price discovery, with a high degree of sensitivity to any inflation surprise or policy shift. The near-term focus centers on how upcoming data, particularly the CPI release, interacts with evolving expectations for the pace of monetary tightening or loosening.
Derivatives and leverage indicators
The derivatives market continues to signal caution, with elevated open interest and implied leverage suggesting that a sizeable portion of market participants remain positioned for volatility. This dynamic implies that any abrupt move—driven by inflation prints or policy commentary—could trigger cascading liquidations, thus amplifying price swings in the short run. Traders should monitor funding rates, roll activity, and the structure of futures curves as potential indicators of shifting risk sentiment. The risk of a sharp unwind in leveraged positions remains a critical factor to watch, especially if macro data surprises push traders to recalibrate risk budgets quickly.
Inflation, rates, and near-term triggers
Jan. 15 CPI data loom large as a potential catalyst for the market’s near-term direction. If the headline and core numbers come in hotter than expected, the prospect of delayed rate cuts or even renewed tightening could reassert pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, cooler inflation could rekindle expectations for policy easing, lifting risk appetite and supporting asset prices, though such a scenario would still need to overcome existing macro headwinds. The market’s sensitivity to the path of interest rates—especially the probability of a January cut—means traders should incorporate rate-probability shifts into their tactical frameworks. A potential upside inflation surprise could be a trigger for a harsher re-pricing of crypto valuations, while a softer print could offer a relief rally, albeit one tempered by overarching macro concerns.
Long-term drivers and the 2025 thesis
Beyond the near term, Steno outlines a compelling 2025 thesis built on structural improvements to the regulatory landscape, a more favorable macro liquidity backdrop, and the network dynamics of Bitcoin after the halving cycle. The combination of regulatory clarity and improved liquidity could reframe risk-reward in crypto markets, enabling a stronger performance across major digital assets. The post-halving environment historically contributes to supply dynamics that support price strength, and the expectation of a continued positive feedback loop between capital inflows and price action reinforces the bullish narrative. While the near-term risk remains elevated due to macro volatility, the longer-term view emphasizes resilience and the potential for new ceiling levels as policy and market mechanics converge in Bitcoin’s favor.
Conclusion
The current trajectory for Bitcoin in early 2025 remains highly dependent on the evolving macroeconomic picture, policy signals, and the balance of risk appetite among global investors. Steno Research underscores the dual reality facing BTC: a challenging near term, with the risk of further declines toward the $85,000 level if inflation overshoots and rate-cut expectations remain subdued, and a longer-term horizon in which a favorable regulatory framework, easing monetary conditions, and the post-halving dynamic could culminate in a profound, multi-year upcycle. Market participants should prepare for ongoing volatility as inflation data and monetary policy clues drive sentiment, price discovery, and risk management decisions. While the risk of additional selloffs exists in the near term, the 2025 outlook presents a narrative of resilience and potential for substantial upside, contingent on the continued alignment of regulatory, macroeconomic, and liquidity conditions. Investors are advised to monitor inflation trends, central bank communications, and the behavior of derivatives markets as key input signals for navigating this evolving landscape.