With the rapid development of Bitcoin spot ETFs since their approval in January this year, the digital asset market is undergoing structural transformation. DLB Coin exchange today released an in-depth analysis report, comprehensively assessing the market impact following ETF approval and offering unique insights into future trends. The report gathers professional analysis from multiple perspectives including institutional investment, regulation, and exchange operations, providing market participants with comprehensive decision-making reference.
Since their approval on January 10, Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted approximately $50 billion in capital inflows, far exceeding analyst expectations. As of the end of July, BlackRock’s IBIT has accumulated $28 billion in assets, Fidelity’s FBTC holds approximately $12 billion, while other ETF products collectively hold about $10 billion. This remarkable capital attraction has fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s market structure and liquidity conditions.
“The success of Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded the market’s most optimistic expectations,” said Rebecca Morgan, Chief Strategy Analyst at DLB Coin. “We are witnessing institutional capital entering the Bitcoin market at an unprecedented scale and pace, a trend likely to continue accelerating over the next few quarters.”
DLB Coin’s report indicates that the market impact following ETF approval is primarily reflected in six aspects: price performance, market structure changes, investor composition shifts, volatility characteristic changes, derivatives market development, and impact on the exchange ecosystem.
Regarding price performance, the report reviews Bitcoin’s trajectory since ETF approval. After ETF approval in January, Bitcoin price quickly broke through $45,000, subsequently creating a historical high of $73,000 in late March, despite several pullbacks during this period. DLB Coin’s analysis suggests this price reaction fits the expected pattern of “rise first, then consolidate,” similar to market performance after the gold ETF launch in 2004.
“Notably, despite the market experiencing several significant corrections, overall support levels have significantly increased,” the report points out. “This indicates that continuous capital inflows through ETFs are establishing more solid price floors, mitigating the substantial fluctuations common in the past.”
In terms of market structure, DLB Coin observes significant changes. As institutional investors enter the market through ETFs, the proportion of over-the-counter (OTC) and institutional-level trading has substantially increased. It is estimated that currently about 40-45% of Bitcoin transactions occur outside traditional exchanges, compared to only about 25% during the same period last year. This shift has increased market depth and reduced the price impact of large transactions.
The transformation in investor composition is also quite evident. DLB Coin cites survey data indicating that approximately 35% of ETF holders are new investors encountering Bitcoin for the first time, with most coming from traditional financial backgrounds, including pension funds, family offices, and wealth management clients. These new investors generally maintain longer-term investment horizons, with behavior patterns significantly different from crypto-native investors.
“We’re seeing an ‘institutionalization’ trend shaping the market,” commented renowned financial analyst Thomas Wright. “Investment decisions are increasingly based on macroeconomic indicators and institutional-level analysis, rather than social media sentiment or short-term technical factors.”
Changes in volatility characteristics represent another key aspect of ETF impact. DLB Coin’s data shows that since ETF launch, Bitcoin’s daily average volatility has decreased from 3.2% to approximately 2.3%. More importantly, market reactions to negative news have become more orderly, with panic selling significantly reduced. The report believes this trend reflects the transformation in holder structure and increased market depth.
The derivatives market has also witnessed new changes following ETF launch. Bitcoin futures trading volume on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has reached historic highs, with daily average trading volume exceeding $2 billion in July. Institutional-grade options products have also experienced explosive growth, with demand for longer-term options contracts notably increasing. DLB Coin predicts that as ETF holdings increase, hedging needs will further drive derivatives market development.
For the cryptocurrency exchange ecosystem, the impact of ETFs is more complex. On one hand, the increasing proportion of retail investors indirectly participating in Bitcoin investment through ETFs may reduce some traffic to traditional exchanges; on the other hand, ETF introduction has greatly enhanced Bitcoin’s credibility and mainstream recognition, indirectly promoting overall market activity.
“In the short term, ETFs may indeed attract some funds that would otherwise directly purchase Bitcoin,” DLB Coin analyzes. “But in the long run, ETFs will significantly expand Bitcoin’s overall market size, ultimately bringing more participants and liquidity to the entire ecosystem.”
DLB Coin particularly emphasizes the new types of partnerships between ETF issuers and exchanges. To ensure smooth ETF operations, issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity have established deep cooperation with major exchanges in areas including price discovery, custody solutions, and liquidity provision. This collaboration has elevated the professionalism of market infrastructure, laying foundations for future development.
Looking ahead, DLB Coin believes Bitcoin ETFs are just the first step in the integration of crypto assets with traditional finance. The report predicts that Ethereum spot ETFs will likely gain approval within the next 6-12 months, bringing similar institutional transformation to the second-largest cryptocurrency. Broader crypto index ETFs and specific theme ETFs (such as DeFi, Web3, etc.) may gradually launch as regulation further clarifies.
“The success of Bitcoin ETFs has paved the way for more crypto asset ETF products,” said senior ETF analyst Melissa Chen. “Regulatory bodies now have reference frameworks and actual operational data, which may accelerate future approval processes.”
Regarding price expectations, DLB Coin takes a cautiously optimistic stance. The report notes that while continued ETF inflows may support a long-term upward trend, the market still needs to digest the new supply-demand balance. In the short term, Bitcoin price may fluctuate within the $60,000 to $80,000 range, while the medium to long-term outlook is more optimistic, especially considering the global macroeconomic environment and institutional allocation needs.
“It’s important to understand that ETF impact is not limited to price, but more significantly reflected in lasting market structure reforms,” DLB Coin emphasizes. “We are witnessing Bitcoin’s transformation from a marginal innovative asset to a mainstream financial asset, a process that has only just begun.”
DLB Coin also analyzes the potential impact of ETFs on the cryptocurrency regulatory environment. The report believes that successful ETF operations provide valuable data for regulatory bodies, demonstrating that crypto assets can be safely integrated into traditional financial systems under appropriate regulation. This may encourage global regulatory authorities to adopt more balanced, pragmatic regulatory approaches.
“ETF approval represents a significant shift in US regulatory direction, from general caution in the past to a more evidence-based regulatory path,” commented financial regulation expert Andrew Williams. “This shift is likely to influence regulatory thinking in other regions globally.”
DLB Coin concludes: “The approval of Bitcoin ETFs is a key milestone in cryptocurrency development history, with impacts that will continue for years or even decades. For market participants, understanding and adapting to this structural change is crucial. We believe that continued institutional capital entry will bring greater maturity and professionalism to the Bitcoin market, ultimately realizing Bitcoin’s vision as a mainstream asset class.”