Trudeau Leaves Canada in Suspense as Anxious Liberals Urge Him to Go
The holiday period has come and gone, but Canadian politics remains gripped by a single question: when will Justin Trudeau finally make his move? The Prime Minister has largely disappeared from public view since December 16th, when Chrystia Freeland – his finance minister and once his most powerful ally in cabinet – resigned with a scathing public letter that criticized him.
The Waiting Game Continues
Trudeau spent much of the holidays at a ski resort in western Canada and shows no signs of returning to the public eye anytime soon. According to a person familiar with his schedule, he has no official events or appearances planned by the end of the week. The Prime Minister remains tight-lipped about when he’ll make an announcement about his future.
Pressure Mounts from Within
However, Trudeau’s silence is starting to wear thin on anxious Liberals who are urging him to go sooner rather than later. Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, warns that the longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion. "Until now it was primarily Justin Trudeau’s personal brand that was damaged," said Nanos, referring to the long polling slump. "I think now the big issue is how much damage will he inflict on the party brand because he is dragging out what looks like will be his resignation at one point or another."
The Polls are Not in Favor
Nanos’ words are backed up by the latest polls, which show that if the current trend continues, the Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats. The party has now launched pre-election advertising, focusing on concern that Conservatives will cut social programs. However, it’s unclear whether this effort will be enough to stem the tide and save the party from a crushing defeat.
A Leadership Race May Not Be Enough
Even if Trudeau were to resign, a Liberal leadership race may not provide an easy solution for the party. The process could take three months or more, during which time the party would remain leaderless and vulnerable to opposition attacks. Moreover, the winner of the leadership contest would have a relatively short period of time – maybe only weeks – before being thrown into a national campaign.
A Politically Wounded Prime Minister
In light of these challenges, Nanos suggests that Trudeau’s best option might be to resign but stay in office while a leadership race takes place. However, he notes that "a politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump."
A Difficult Road Ahead for the Liberals
Regardless of what happens next, the Liberal Party faces a difficult road ahead in 2025. Even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government.
A Warning from History
As Nanos points out, the Liberals’ worst showing in any national election was in 2011, when they won 19% of the popular vote and only 34 seats. About two years later, they chose Trudeau as their new leader, who "took the Liberals out of the wilderness." However, Nanos warns that "it very well may be that he will return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election."
The Clock is Ticking
In conclusion, the longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion. The polls are not in favor, and even with a new leader, the party faces a difficult road ahead. As Nanos so aptly puts it, "time is of the essence."