A sweeping view of the first quarter of 2025 shows a paradox at the heart of the global power system: China cut its fossil fuel power emissions for the first time in years, yet overall worldwide emissions from electricity generation stayed stubbornly elevated as the United States and Europe ramped up their fossil fuel-fired output. The latest Ember data indicate that the United States and Europe together burned more coal and natural gas in January through March 2025 than in the same period a year earlier, offsetting a sizable drop in China and leaving the global power sector on a path that could propel emissions higher through 2025 and beyond. Against this backdrop, the dynamics of wind, solar, and fuel prices interact with policy choices and economic conditions to shape the trajectory of power-sector pollution in the coming months.
Global emissions snapshot for the first quarter of 2025
In the opening months of 2025, the combined fossil fuel power emissions from the United States and Europe reached 801 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide, according to Ember’s measurements. This figure represents a rise of 53 million tonnes, or about 7%, compared with the same period in 2024. It also stands as the highest first-quarter emissions tally in the global power sector since 2022, underscoring a shift in the balance of power demand and supply across mature economies. The month-to-month momentum behind this increase is tied to several converging factors, including robust demand growth, a slower transition to cleaner generation in key regions, and the way fuel mix responded to weather and price signals.
Conversely, China’s fossil power emissions declined by about 60 million tonnes, a substantial drop that partially offsets the surge seen in the United States and Europe. Taken together, the global picture remains less than a collapse in output but far from a complete decarbonization of the electricity supply. The reduction in China helped to soften what might otherwise have been a sharper global increase, yet it did not prevent global power sector pollution from staying elevated relative to historical norms. The juxtaposition of a sharp downturn in China against a persistent rise across the United States and Europe highlights the uneven pace of the energy transition and the geographic heterogeneity that characterizes emissions trends in the power sector.
With the United States positioned on the cusp of its most fossil-fuel-intensive generation period, while China’s manufacturers are poised to escalate output because of a recently announced 90-day trade truce with the United States, the near-term horizon for global emissions is likely to tilt higher. In practical terms, this means that even as one of the world’s largest polluters experiences a policy-driven or demand-driven pause in emissions, others may pick up the slack, sustaining or even elevating the global emissions baseline for electricity production in 2025. The momentum in the first quarter sets up a delicate balance of regional dynamics that policymakers, utilities, and investors will be watching closely as the year unfolds.
The early 2025 period also spotlighted how the adoption and integration of fossil fuels into power generation respond to weather patterns, policy signals, and market incentives. In Europe, a combination of weather conditions and grid constraints pushed utilities toward greater reliance on fossil fuels to meet demand. In the United States, a combination of rising demand and policy signals perceived as favorable to fossil fuels spurred a broader uplift in the fossil generation mix. The interaction among these variables—weather-driven renewables, fuel price differentials, and policy direction—helped shape both the total emissions figure and the distribution of emissions across sectors and regions.
The data imply an ongoing challenge: even as cleaner energy sources ramp up in some markets, the persistence of high fossil fuel output in others, especially during shoulder and peak demand periods, can erase gains from reductions elsewhere. The first-quarter numbers illustrate this tension clearly, revealing a global electricity system that remains heavily dependent on coal and natural gas in multiple regions even as the transition to cleaner power continues in others. The resulting emissions profile is not static but instead reflects a dynamic interplay of supply constraints, demand growth, and fuel price volatility that will continue to influence annual totals throughout 2025.
In this context, it is crucial to understand the underlying drivers of the US and European increases, as well as the offsetting factors in China. The rise in emissions in the United States and Europe is driven by higher output from coal and gas plants, alongside weather-related demand fluctuations and the economic environment that shapes utility procurement choices. In Europe, record or near-record low wind conditions during part of the period reduced wind generation and forced a compensatory rise in fossil generation. The magnitude of the shift toward fossil fuels in Europe — specifically an 8% increase in gas-fired generation and a 6% rise in coal-fired output in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 — demonstrates how renewables’ intermittency can temporarily tilt the overall emissions balance even when the renewable share is growing over longer timeframes.
In the United States, a combination of sustained power demand growth and policy signals perceived as supportive of fossil fuels contributed to a broader uplift in fossil generation. Utilities responded by increasing fossil fuel-fired output by about 4% in January through March 2025 relative to the prior-year period. Yet, the shift was not uniform across fuels: gas-fired generation fell by 4%, while coal-fired output surged by 23% year-over-year. The sizable coal increase occurred despite higher gas prices, underscoring a market preference for the lower short-run cost of coal in a price-sensitive generation mix. The result is a higher overall emissions footprint for the US power sector in the first quarter, even as some structural changes in the energy system push toward more gas-to-coal replacements in certain hours or regions.
This allocation of generation capacity and emissions in the United States and Europe stands in contrast to the trend in China, where the economy’s weakness and constrained industry output curtailed electricity demand. Industrial activity, which is a major driver of power demand in China, contracted, reducing commercial-sector electricity needs and allowing utilities to reduce fossil fuel generation by about 4% in January through March 2025 versus the same period in 2024. The net effect is that China’s lower power demand contributed to a reduction in fossil generation, a counterweight to the higher emissions in the US and Europe. The contrast across the three major markets illustrates how regional economic health, industrial activity, and policy direction can produce divergent trajectories for fossil power emissions in a single year.
Looking ahead, the near-term outlook is shaped by the expectation that China’s manufacturers will increase production following the 90-day truce with the United States. That uptick in factory activity is a direct driver of higher power demand; electricity use in industrial sectors is tightly linked to manufacturing output, and more production typically requires more electricity, which, if supplied by fossil fuels, translates into higher emissions. Moreover, the anticipated rebound in Chinese demand could tighten the global gas market and alter electricity pricing, potentially incentivizing power firms to adjust their generation mix in ways that could further raise emissions in the coming months if coal remains a more affordable option than gas in many markets.
At the same time, the United States faces its own seasonal dynamics. The power system typically experiences its summer peak as air conditioner usage rises, pushing demand toward the highest points of the year. Solar generation also tends to peak during the summer, offering a significant infusion of clean energy. However, solar output declines during evenings when demand remains high, requiring a backstop from fossil-fired plants to maintain grid reliability and meet peak load. Given current natural gas price levels — which are about 40% higher than in May 2024 — utilities are more inclined to rely on coal when prices and grid considerations favor it, despite the carbon intensity differences between coal and gas.
In energy metrics, Ember’s data provide granular insight into the emissions intensity of different fuels. The organization recorded that in 2024, U.S. power firms emitted roughly 950,000 tonnes of CO2 per terawatt-hour (TWh) of coal-fired electricity, compared with about 540,000 tonnes CO2 per TWh from gas-fired electricity. This stark contrast in per-unit emissions highlights why shifts toward coal can disproportionately boost overall emissions, even if generation costs or reliability concerns temporarily favor coal in the near term. When these fuel-specific emissions footprints are layered onto the forecasted rise in Chinese generation and the seasonal patterns in the United States, the condition for an upward pressure on global power emissions in the months ahead becomes clearer.
Taken together, the January-March 2025 period demonstrates a critical pivot point: while one of the world’s largest emitters reduces its fossil power output, several other major markets are increasing theirs, sustaining a higher global emissions baseline. The essential question for policymakers and industry observers is whether improvements in efficiency, deployment of cleaner technologies, or shifts in policy will outpace the reinforcement of fossil fuel-based generation through 2025 and into 2026. The interplay of economic growth, energy pricing, and the evolution of the energy transition will determine whether the world can bend the trajectory of power-sector emissions downward or whether the calendar year will mark a renewed ascent in pollution linked to electricity production.
United States and Europe: generation trends and policy signals in early 2025
Across the Atlantic, the first quarter of 2025 featured a mix of weather-driven generation shifts, policy signals, and market responses that collectively elevated fossil fuel use. In Europe, the persistence of low wind output constrained the region’s cleaner power generation from wind and other renewables, compelling grid operators and utilities to fill the gap with more conventional sources. That substitution manifested in a notable 8% increase in gas-fired generation and a 6% rise in coal-fired output during January through March 2025 versus the same period in 2024. The weather pattern created a challenging backdrop for renewables integration, delaying the anticipated emissions reductions that might come from a higher renewable share in the overall generation mix. The result was a fossil-heavy quarter for Europe, with emissions implications that extended beyond the borders of any single nation as European grids export and import electricity.
In addition to weather, European utilities faced systemic challenges in balancing supply and demand during the first quarter. The reliance on gas and coal to ensure reliability in the face of wind variability underlines a broader transition dynamic: the energy system is increasingly characterized by a longer tail of fossil-fuel-based generation even as investments in wind, solar, storage, and grid modernization continue. The emission footprint of Europe in this period was shaped by these competing forces — the push toward decarbonization tempered by the realities of seasonal demand and fuel price dynamics. The 8% uplift in gas-fired generation is particularly notable given the policy environments in many European countries that emphasize gas as a bridging fuel for the transition, especially as renewable capacity expands but weather windows remain uncertain.
In the United States, the first quarter of 2025 saw a more pronounced shift toward fossil fuels driven by a combination of demand growth and policy expectations. Utilities increased overall fossil fuel generation by roughly 4% from the prior-year quarter. Yet the dynamics among gas and coal reversed relative to Europe: gas-fired generation declined by about 4%, a sign that higher natural gas prices were nudging operators toward coal as a cheaper option for meeting margins and reliability during peak demand periods. Coal-fired output surged by approximately 23% in January through March 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, illustrating a substantial swing toward coal when prices and market incentives tilt that way. This behavior underscores how fuel price signals can override longer-term decarbonization goals, at least in the near term, and how generation decisions can have outsized effects on emissions in the short run.
The combination of stronger coal use and the partial retreat of gas in the United States not only affects current emissions but also shapes expectations for the rest of the year. If high gas prices persist or widen further, utilities could continue leaning on coal to minimize costs and preserve reliability. Conversely, if renewable generation or storage advances enough to cover more of the demand curve, the reliance on coal could soften. The first quarter’s data provide a snapshot of a U.S. power system navigating price signals, policy expectations, and weather-driven variability as it transitions from a fossil-heavy spring toward a summer peak that will test grid resilience and emissions performance.
Beyond fuel choices, the seasonal and demand-side dynamics in the United States influence emissions indirectly through the timing of peak electricity use. The夏 season is historically a period of elevated electricity demand due to air conditioning, and solar power output tends to peak during this time. The added solar generation can offset some fossil fuel use during daylight hours, helping to moderate emissions in the middle of the day. However, as evening demand climbs again and solar generation falls, coal- and gas-fired plants often supply the majority of power, keeping emissions elevated during peak evening hours. The overall effect is a daily cycle of cleaner daytime generation followed by higher-emission evening periods, a pattern that can complicate year-over-year emissions comparisons.
In the broader energy context, the United States faces a price environment for natural gas that remains a legible driver of generation choices. Natural gas prices in 2025 have carried a premium of roughly 40% above levels observed in May 2024, a factor that nudges utilities toward coal as a lower-cost alternative in many generation scenarios. This price gap between gas and coal means that even if policy or market signals favor cleaner energy, the economic calculus for utility planners may still favor coal during certain hours, particularly when reliability concerns or demand surges arise. The CO2 emissions intensity associated with coal-fired power is significantly higher than that of natural gas, so the fuel mix decisions driven by price dynamics directly translate into larger emissions in the near term.
Another important dimension of the U.S. and European emissions picture is the quality and depth of data that Ember provides. The organization’s figures quantify emissions at the level of tonne per TWh, offering a window into fuel-specific intensity. For coal-fired electricity, the emissions rate in 2024 stood around 950,000 tonnes of CO2 per TWh, while gas-fired generation emitted roughly 540,000 tonnes CO2 per TWh. This stark difference confirms why even modest shifts toward coal can produce outsized effects on the total emissions tally, and why the ongoing policy challenge is to prune coal use while expanding cleaner alternatives. Understanding these per-TWh intensities helps explain the sector’s behavior under price and demand pressures and informs debates about the best levers for reducing emissions while maintaining grid reliability and affordability.
Europe’s first-quarter experience also highlights the relationship between wind resources and fossil-fired generation. When wind speeds are low for sustained periods, the share of electricity supplied by clean wind power falls, necessitating an adaptive response from grid operators and utilities. In such scenarios, fossil-fired generation becomes a more cost-effective and reliable backstop, and the emissions footprint rises as a result. Conversely, favorable wind conditions in other periods can temporarily suppress emissions by displacing more carbon-intensive generation. The volatility of renewable output thus contributes to the overall quarterly emissions pattern, reinforcing the importance of complementary measures such as energy storage, interconnection among grids, and demand-side management to smooth the transition away from fossil fuels.
China’s economic constraints and their implications for global power emissions
China’s power sector presents a contrasting narrative within the global picture for the first quarter of 2025. The economy’s weakness — anchored by a construction sector credit crisis and the onset of a new phase in a U.S.-China trade relationship — has dampened industrial activity and, as a consequence, reduced demand for electricity in both industrial and commercial sectors. The result is a lowered power load from heavy industry, which translates into a reduction in fossil fuel generation by roughly 4% in January through March 2025 compared with the prior-year period. This moderation in demand helps to soften the emissions profile within China and serves as a counterbalance to the rising emissions observed in the United States and Europe during the same period.
The structure of China’s power generation mix remains heavily dependent on coal, a characteristic that has persisted for years. Ember’s data indicate that coal accounts for around 60% of electricity supplies in China, a composition that underscores why any uptick in electricity demand from manufacturing and construction can quickly translate into higher emissions unless offset by a strong expansion of renewables or a rapid decline in coal’s share. The domestic policy and market environment in China, including state-directed incentives for industrial activity and the role of state-owned enterprises in the energy sector, interacts with global trade dynamics to shape both current emissions and the trajectory for the coming months.
Despite the near-term weakness in China’s economy, the broader narrative suggests potential acceleration in activity if the 90-day trade truce with the United States leads to a rebound in manufacturing and construction. Factory output tends to drive electricity demand, and if factories ramp up, there is a direct and meaningful effect on the power system’s fuel mix. Utilities may respond by adjusting generation to ensure stable power provisions, which could involve a renewed reliance on coal if gas prices remain high or if renewables cannot keep pace with demand. In this sense, China’s trajectory remains a critical wildcard for the global emissions outlook in 2025, capable of either tempering or amplifying the global emissions signal depending on how industrial activity evolves and on how quickly the country scales up its clean energy capacity.
The interplay between China’s demand dynamics and the rest of the world’s supply decisions creates a balancing act at the global level. If Chinese demand recovers swiftly and maintains a high level of manufacturing activity, power producers globally could experience heightened competition for fuels and a tighter gas market, potentially pushing more electricity generation toward coal in some regions. On the other hand, continued growth in renewable capacity, storage innovations, and regional grid improvements could help China—along with other economies—reduce the emissions intensity of power supply even as absolute generation rises. The net effect on global emissions will depend on how these competing forces play out over the coming months as weather patterns, fuel prices, and policy signals continue to influence generation choices.
Outlook for 2025: emissions trajectories, fuel mix, and policy implications
The near-term outlook for 2025 is characterized by a set of interlocking drivers that could push global power emissions higher despite intermittent improvements in individual markets. The United States’ summer peak, with its high electricity demand and potential for continued heavy reliance on coal during certain hours, is likely to be a key factor shaping the trajectory of emissions. Even as solar generation expands and contributes to the daytime energy mix, evenings and cloudy periods may rely more on fossil fuels, thereby sustaining an elevated emissions profile for several months.
The price dynamic for natural gas remains a central variable in determining the relative attractiveness of coal versus gas in the generation mix. With gas prices higher than in the previous year, utilities may continue to favor coal in marginal hours, particularly when the system must meet high demand quickly or when gas supply is constrained. The emissions impact of this shift is significant, given coal’s much larger CO2 emissions per unit of energy than natural gas. The year-ahead forecast must therefore consider how long the price gap remains and whether policy actions or technological breakthroughs can tilt the balance toward lower-emission options without compromising reliability.
Another crucial factor is China’s ongoing post-crisis rebound. If factory activity accelerates in response to the 90-day trade truce and the broader improvement in demand from global supply chains, China may increase power consumption and push utilities to lift fossil fuel output to meet the new demand curve. This potential rise in coal usage could contribute to a higher global emissions baseline even if China simultaneously expands renewable capacity. The net effect hinges on whether the region can deliver a meaningful reduction in the emissions intensity of power generation through greater deployment of wind, solar, and storage, coupled with more efficient coal and gas plants, and a more robust grid that minimizes the need for peaking plants.
The United States’ generation mix in the coming months will continue to reflect a balancing act between affordability, reliability, and environmental goals. Utilities will likely operate within a framework that seeks to maximize the use of lower-cost or more stable generation options during critical periods, even if those options are more emission-intensive. The broader energy policy environment could influence these choices: if federal, state, or local measures accelerate the deployment of zero-emission resources, demand response programs, and energy efficiency improvements, emissions could be moderated even as demand grows. In other words, the degree to which policies and market reforms help to decarbonize electricity while maintaining grid reliability will be a decisive determinant of the global emissions trajectory for 2025.
The data also underscore the ongoing importance of understanding per-TWh emissions intensities by fuel type. Coal-fired electricity continues to carry a far higher emissions footprint than gas-fired electricity, which means that even modest changes in the coal share can have outsized impacts on total emissions. For policymakers, this highlights the value of strategies that reduce coal dependence while maintaining reliable generation. Potential policy responses include targeted support for cleaner, flexible generation technologies, investment in carbon capture and storage where feasible, and incentives to accelerate the deployment of low-emission baseload sources, as well as energy efficiency measures that reduce overall demand and the need for high-emission generation at times of peak load.
The 2025 outlook must also account for how weather variability and seasonality interact with fuel choices. In many regions, weather conditions will determine wind and solar output and, thereby, the extent to which fossil fuels must fill the gaps. Storage solutions, transmission upgrades, and regional energy markets that optimize cross-border power flows can help to smooth the intermittency of renewables and reduce the reliance on fossil-fuel peaking plants. Achieving meaningful emissions reductions will require a combination of sustained renewable growth, improved operational efficiency, and policy certainty that encourages long-term investment in cleaner generation and grid modernization.
To summarize the near-term implications for the power sector, 2025 is likely to continue to feature a tug-of-war between regions with rising emissions due to higher fossil fuel generation and those that are making steady progress in decarbonizing electricity supply. The United States and Europe face continued pressure to balance reliability and affordability with decarbonization goals, particularly as gas prices remain elevated and coal remains a cost-effective option in many hours. China’s trajectory remains the largest single variable for the global emissions outcome, with the potential to either dampen or amplify the worldwide trend depending on the pace of industrial activity, the effectiveness of energy transition measures, and the strategic prioritization of cleaner generation sources.
Conclusion
In the opening window of 2025, the global power sector presented a nuanced picture: China reduced its fossil power emissions, but broader regional increases in the United States and Europe kept overall emissions elevated. The first-quarter data reveal a complex mosaic of drivers — weather, fuel prices, policy signals, and economic activity — that collectively shape how much CO2 is released from electricity generation. European wind variability pushed up fossil output, the United States leaned on coal during a period of rising demand and high gas prices, and China faced an economy constrained by credit and trade tensions even as it contemplates a rebound driven by a 90-day truce with the United States.
Looking ahead, the global emissions outlook will hinge on whether cleaner generation can outpace demand growth and whether structural shifts in the fuel mix can overcome the near-term pressures created by price signals and intermittent renewables. The next several months will test the resilience and adaptability of power systems around the world as they navigate the dual aims of ensuring reliable electricity supply and driving down emissions. The interplay of policy direction, market incentives, and technological progress will determine whether 2025 becomes a turning point toward a lower-emission power sector or a year in which emissions continue to rise alongside growing energy demand.